2013 copper and molybdenum production forecast

Copper: China production is expected to maintain moderate growth
"In 2013, global copper supply growth will speed up, China's copper production is expected to maintain moderate growth trend." On March 28, Beijing antaike information development co., LTD., an analyst at Yang Changhua forecast, benefit from the mines of copper yield rebounded sharply and copper smelting capacity expansion, the global output of refined copper is expected to reach 20.65 million tons, year-on-year growth of around 4.1%. According to Yang Changhua analysis, gradually entered the global copper project put into production peak, last year's global copper project about 20 (excluding China), tungsten carbide plate the new capacity of about 820000 tons; About 20 copper project put into production this year, the new capacity around 1.22 million tons, including Mongolia international oyu tolgoi copper 450000 tons of production capacity. "Release of production capacity, will drive the copper concentrate yield increased at a faster pace." Yang Changhua said, "this year's global output will reach 13.62 million tons of copper concentrate, up 6% from a year earlier." National bureau of statistics recently released figures showing that in the first two months of this year, China's cumulative production of refined copper 975000 tons, up 11.9% from a year earlier.
Antaike, according to the analysis of the data in 2013, the trend of global refined copper will still continue supply exceeds demand, the excess supply is expected to about 400000 tons; China's refined copper imports may fall, but the excess supply will still be around 700000 tons.
Hardly optimistic prices: molybdenum demand
In 2012, 40% to 45% Molybdenum tube oncentrate for an average of 1632 yuan/ton, far below the 2004 to present the level of average price 2730 yuan/ton, and lower than the high cost of primary ore production costs 1800 yuan/ton. , assistant general manager of the antaike, tungsten molybdenum vanadium project manager Xu Aihua said that although the molybdenum price decline for several years basically completed the initiative to make molybdenum industry production and the process of the initiative to inventory but molybdenum demand cautious, molybdenum price rise.

Xu Aihua thinks, at present, the global economic situation remains unclear, economic growth is sluggish, the direct impact on the development of steel industry. As with close ties to the molybdenum iron and steel industry, recent price movements will be after a period of adjustment.

Global molybdenum production of 229000 tons in 2012, following the fall again in 2009, fell 8.5%. Among them, led by the United States and Chile, 17% and 26% respectively, while China has a small growth.

At present, China, USA, Chile molybdenum production of global proportion reached 37%, 26% and 37% respectively. In recent years, the growth of global molybdenum production is mainly from China.

According to the Xu Aihua expected, from 2013 to 2014, the global output of molybdenum is expected to 250000 tons and 270000 tons respectively. In the growth of production, she has a particular value factors in China. "Due to China's gold group co., LTD. Belongs to osan copper molybdenum copper and molybdenum separation is implemented in January, I this year are expected in the mine production will reach 3000 tons, the output will reach 6000 tons is expected next year."

Molybdenum deposits are mainly distributed in China, the United States, Chile and other countries, the three countries accounted for 81% of global reserves. China molybdenum reserves, the world first, and mine are native ore grade is high, less impurity. "At present, the domestic private small mines mining stripping phenomenon is serious. As the industry access policy execution, trust industry leading to the molybdenum price of pricing power will increase." Xu Aihua said.

In the long run, Xu Aihua remains bullish on molybdenum price, she said: "from the terminal consumption, molybdenum is mainly used in energy, infrastructure, shipping, aerospace, military industry, etc. These industry significantly benefits the global third industrial revolution and China's new urbanization drive, will in the next 10 to 20 years to drive molybdenum consumption to return to the path of growth."